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ANew York Times BestsellerAnEconomistBest Book of 2015"The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman'sThinking, Fast and Slow."Jason Zweig,TheWall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the weeks meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good And can this talent be taught In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary peopleincluding a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancerwho set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. Theyve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. Theyve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Ladens compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesnt require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the futurewhether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily lifeand is destined to become a modern classic. The intelligence of fear: Intelligence and National Fear of overseers Some intelligence officers fear that the organizations that oversee their activities in the name of democracy will turn on them The Professionalization of Intelligence Analysis: A (2016) The Professionalization of Intelligence Analysis: A Skeptical Perspective International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence: Vol 29 No 4 Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Kindle Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction - Kindle edition by Philip E Tetlock Dan Gardner Download it once and read it on your Kindle device PC phones Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Buy Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction on FREE SHIPPING on qualified orders The Best Books of 2015 - Bloombergcom These are some of the most popular choices in the annual survey of book recommendations compiled by Bloomberg 25 books Wall Street are reading according to submissions Hundreds of Wall Streeters around the world contributed to this list of recommended books for outdoor reading Dan Gardner Author Journalist Lecturer Future Babble Why experts predictions fail and why we believe them anyway Download Psychology & The Mind Audio Books Audiblecom Download and listen to Psychology & The Mind audio books featuring best sellers and top-rated Audiblecom customer favorites Dave Rapach's Homepage Together with Maria Arias and Charles Gascon of the St Louis Fed I developed monthly economic activity indices for the 50 largest US MSAs beginning in 1990; the AnalyticBridge - A Data Science Central Community Welcome to Analytic Bridge! A Data Science Central Community Channel devoted entirely to all things Analytics and Business Intelligence
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